Thursday, November 1, 2012


Expected DA upto 81% from January, 2013 on September, 2012 AICPI-IW index


Expectation of future Dearness Allowance from January, 2013 on the basis of 2 points jump in CPI-IW for the month of August, 2012 and 1 point jump in September, 2012 giving expectation for DA  80% or more from January 2013.
All India Consumer Price Index Number [http://labourbureau.nic.in/indtab.html] for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW) on base 2001=100 for September, 2012 showing increase in 1 point and stood at 215 (Two hundred and fifteen).

Expectation-1
 If we expect only 1 point increase in this index for every month the Dearness Allowance for Central Government Employee will touch 80% in January, 2013.  In view of increased LPG & Diesel price etc. we expect more monthly increase in Index and similarly in future DA.  Please go through the following calculation:-

Expected Dearness Allowance DA for Jan, 2013 calculated as under:

Dearness Allowance = (Avg of AICPI for the past 12 months - 115.76)*100/115.76

Month
Base Year 2001 = 100
Total of 12 Months
Twelve monthly Average
% increase over 115.76 for   DA
DA announced or will be announced
Dec-11
197
2298
191.50
65.43%
65%
Jan-12
198
2308
192.33
66.15%
Feb-12
199
2322
193.50
67.16%
72%
Mar-12
201
2338
194.83
68.31%
Apr-12
205
2357
196.42
69.68%
May-12
206
2376
198.00
71.04%
Jun-12
208
2395
199.58
72.41%
Jul-12
212
2414
201.17
73.78%
Aug-12
214
2434
202.83
75.22%
80%
Sep-12
215
2452
204.33
76.51%
Oct-12
216
2470
205.83
77.81%
Nov-12
217
2488
207.33
79.11%
Dec-12
218
2509
209.08
80.62%
Jan-13
Expected DA from January, 2013

Expectation-2


 If we expect 2 point increase in this index for every month the Dearness Allowance for Central Government Employee will exceed 80% in January, 2013.  In view of increased LPG & Diesel price etc. we expect more monthly increase in Index and similarly in future DA.  Please go through the following calculation:-

Expected Dearness Allowance DA for Jan, 2013 calculated as under:

Dearness Allowance = (Avg of AICPI for the past 12 months - 115.76)*100/115.76

Aug-12
214
2434
202.83
75.22%
81%
Sep-12
215
2452
204.33
76.51%
Oct-12
217
2471
205.92
77.88%
Nov-12
219
2491
207.58
79.32%
Dec-12
222
2516
209.67
81.12%
Jan-13
Expected DA from January, 2013

Hence, it is also clear that expectation of increase in DA from January, 2013 will not cross 9%.


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